Jack Paul 
For the first time in nearly 100 years, Americans can legally place bets on election outcomes. Betting websites now allow users to buy and sell contracts based on whether specific candidates will win or lose. Supporters argue these platforms predict results more accurately than traditional polls.
Zachary Peskowitz, a political science professor at Emory University, explained that prediction markets offer clearer odds than surveys. “You can interpret a prediction market as saying there’s an 80% chance that a given candidate wins the election,” he said. “This is an information source that the media and individual citizens will use.”
How campaigns are adapting
These betting platforms are already changing political campaign strategies. Recently, many people placed bets on the race in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District. They weren’t just predicting the winner—they were also measuring Donald Trump’s influence within the Republican Party. The runoff election gained national attention because of Trump’s endorsement and because platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have become part of how Americans track politics.
In Kentucky, some candidates are even monitoring the odds betting markets give them during primary elections. According to Andra Gillespie, these services work because people are more honest when they put money on what they believe will happen, rather than simply stating who they hope wins.
The risks of political betting
However, there is a downside. People worry that as these sites grow in popularity, they might influence voter behavior rather than just predict it. Peskowitz warned that seeing negative odds for your candidate could lead to giving up. The rise of political betting has also sparked legal and ethical problems.
Earlier this year, Kalshi prohibited lawmakers, campaign workers, and some government employees from betting on US elections due to concerns about conflicts of interest. Meanwhile, Polymarket has faced accusations of insider trading and suspicious betting related to Trump’s legal troubles and political prospects. Reports show the platform has processed over 413 million bets, with more than $100 million tied to political races. These scandals raise concerns that markets could be rigged if insiders use private information to profit.
“There is a possibility that there can be corruption or that this could be used for corrupt purposes,” said Gillespie. She noted that betting sites can’t replace regular polls because they don’t explain why people vote the way they do. “As a social scientist, I’m not just interested in who are you gonna vote for, but I’m also interested in why you’re voting in a particular election.”
Uncertain future
The rules for political betting are still being worked out. Georgia doesn’t currently allow legal sports gambling, though prediction markets operate in a murky area across the country. Peskowitz said disputes between states, betting corporations, and federal organizations like the CFTC will likely determine the future of political betting.
For now, observers believe the runoff in Georgia’s 14th District will reveal two things: whether Trump still wields significant political power, and how important betting markets will be in future elections. The next steps taken by voters, campaigns, and regulators will decide whether these sites help or harm democracy. “I think it’s too early for us to tell,” Gillespie said. “Political junkies might be paying attention to it, but I’m not sure that most people are paying attention to this in their everyday lives.”