Karla Barker 
XRP is seeing stronger demand in spot and derivatives markets, but that hasn’t changed the bigger picture. The token is still stuck in a macro bear market, and the price looks likely to fall below $1 again.
Earlier this week, on August 11, XRP dropped below the $1 support level for the first time since November 16, 2024. It hit a fresh bear market low of $0.9952. By August 13, it was trading around $1.01, down 1.22% in 24 hours. Trading volume stood near $1 billion, about 29% lower than the previous day, based on CoinMarketCap data.
What is driving the weakness
The bearish move has been tied, at least partly, to delayed action in the U.S. Senate on the CLARITY Act. That bill is meant to establish clearer rules for crypto, but its prolonged stalemate appears to be weighing on sentiment. As a result, XRP has formed a falling trend with lower lows and lower highs.
Still, the picture is not entirely one-sided. If XRP can close consistently above a liquidity level near $1.16, there is room for a reversal. That would require the formation of a new higher high, and it’s too early to say if that happens. Also, XRP whales have been accumulating while buyers in derivatives markets increase.
Where traders think the floor is
Polymarket users have weighed in on possible price floors. The average base sits around $0.80. At the time of writing, those traders gave a 45% chance that XRP would freefall to $0.80 and a 20% chance of hitting $0.60.
That would translate into a potential drop of roughly 20.79% to $0.80 or a much deeper 40.59% move to $0.60 if the market deteriorates further. Meanwhile, traders put less than a 10% probability on XRP reaching its all-time high by the end of 2026.
What to watch next
The immediate focus is whether XRP can hold above the psychological and technical $1 level. If not, the lower liquidity zones near $0.80 could come into play. On the upside, a daily close above $1.16 would be the first real signal that bearish pressure is easing.
Whale activity and derivatives data add some nuance. Accumulation often shows up before a bounce, but it doesn’t guarantee one. Given the current macro environment and the regulatory stall, caution seems justified. The market is not pricing in a quick recovery.
For now, the path of least resistance appears to be lower, unless something changes with the bill or overall crypto sentiment. The next few sessions could tell whether $0.80 is just a number on a betting screen or an actual support level that gets tested.