Karla Barker 
XRP dropped 15.7% in October, leaving the token near $1.25 to $1.26 and below the $1.30 support line. That move matters because November has a reputation for strong returns. The headline number looks good. The details are messier.
The average is skewed
Cryptorank data show XRP’s average November gain at 80.2%. That figure is not a reliable guide. Two outlier months do most of the work: a 531.9% surge in 2013 and a 281.7% rally in 2024. Remove those and the picture changes. The median November return is negative 10%. Over most cycles, XRP closed the month in the red. The fourth quarter, with only October counted so far, is down 16.3%. That fits the asset’s seasonal tendency toward correction, something the average hides.
Market structure has changed
The median is not perfect either. Thirteen observations are a small sample. Market structure has also shifted. Spot XRP ETFs launched in the US in mid-November 2025, giving the token an institutional demand channel that did not exist in earlier cycles. That could alter how November behaves. Still, the current price action is weak. XRP has lost the $1.30 level, and the upward momentum built on investor expectations has faded. Short-term players appear to be taking profit after a 48% gain in the third quarter, XRP’s best Q3 in four years. So part of the pressure looks like profit-taking, not seasonality alone.
Supply and leverage meet thin liquidity
A scheduled unlock of 1 billion XRP from Ripple’s escrow wallets is due on Sunday, November 1. The event is routine. It has followed the same schedule since 2017, and Ripple usually returns 600 million to 800 million XRP to new escrow contracts. The net addition to circulating supply is therefore closer to 200 million to 400 million XRP. Even so, with liquidity thin, that volume can add pressure. It arrives alongside macroeconomic tension and the aftermath of forced liquidations of long positions worth more than $1.29 billion, triggered by a security incident at Binance.
The liquidation wave has also cleared some excess leverage. If funding rates stay negative and open interest does not recover, the bearish case may be limited by a short squeeze. In that setup, a retest of $1.30 to $1.32 becomes more likely than the raw November statistics suggest. The chart, cleaned of historical anomalies, leaves two scenarios. Neither is settled by an 80% average.