Karla Barker 
The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting wraps up tomorrow, and markets are already feeling the pressure. Bitcoin has slipped about 3% over the past day, dropping to near $63,400 as traders lighten their positions ahead of the rate announcement.
Rate Decision Outlook
According to CME FedWatch, there is a 64% chance the Fed will keep rates unchanged — the same as in June. That’s down slightly from a week ago, when the probability was closer to 70%. The cooling CPI reading last month, which fell to 3.5% from 4.2%, gave the Fed some room to pause. But rising oil prices, partly due to renewed tensions in the Middle East, have made the inflation outlook less certain.
Some major players are betting on a different outcome. Citadel Securities expects a 25 basis point hike. Frank Flight, their head of macro strategy, said the market may be underestimating how hawkish the Fed has become. The odds of a hike by September have jumped to 81%.
Market Sentiment Divided
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has stressed that the Fed won’t tolerate persistently high inflation, but his recent comments haven’t given any clear signal on July. He’s also pushed for less forward guidance, which makes predictions harder. Over on Polymarket, prediction traders see only a 24.65% chance of a hike, while 75% expect no change. JPMorgan, meanwhile, thinks the Fed will hold tomorrow and keep rates steady for the rest of 2026.
Impact on Crypto
The crypto market is clearly on edge. The total market cap has fallen about 3% to $2.17 trillion. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 34, signaling growing fear among traders. Major altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin are all down between 3% and 5%.
If the Fed does hold rates, it could provide some short-term relief for Bitcoin and the broader market. But if they hike, we might see another leg down — at least until the dust settles. Either way, tomorrow’s decision will likely set the tone for crypto in the weeks ahead.