Immy Dorse 
Well, it’s been a rough stretch for crypto, no doubt about that. Prices have been sliding, and the mood’s been pretty grim. But maybe, just maybe, that’s the whole point.
Analyst Alex Krüger seems to think so. Over the weekend, he pointed out something that might seem counterintuitive at first. He suggested that when the charts look this bad—when everything appears completely broken—it can actually be a sign that things are about to turn around. It’s that moment when everyone who was going to panic and sell has probably already done so.
The Charts Tell a Story of Fear
Krüger shared a bunch of charts backing up his view. Bitcoin and Ether had both fallen below some key short-term trend lines, which technically isn’t a great look. Solana, interestingly, seemed to be holding up a bit better by comparison.
But perhaps more telling were the derivatives charts. They combined things like funding rates and a metric called “skew” from the options market. What they showed was a market bracing for more pain. Traders were getting defensive, buying protection. Puts were getting a lot more expensive than calls, which is a classic sign of fear.
A Necessary Flush-Out
He also noted that there had been some pretty significant long liquidations recently. For those not deep in the jargon, that’s when traders who bet on prices going up get forced out of their positions because prices fell too much. It creates a nasty cascade of selling.
But here’s the thing: once that selling is over, the market often finds a floor. All that excessive leverage gets wiped clean. It’s a reset. And it looks like we might be in the middle of that process right now.
An Odd Divergence and a Big Catalyst
Another thing he spotted was a bit unusual. The selling pressure seemed concentrated in Bitcoin and Ether, while many smaller altcoins had already stopped falling earlier. Normally, it’s the other way around—the big coins fall first, then the alts get crushed. This divergence can sometimes be a hint that the worst of the panic is over.
Still, Krüger isn’t expecting a massive rally to start immediately. His view is that we’re set up for a move higher, but the real catalyst will likely be the Fed’s next meeting. The FOMC is set to meet mid-September, and the expectation is for a rate cut. He thinks that might not be fully reflected in prices yet. Lower rates tend to be good for risk assets, crypto included.
He’s careful to say this isn’t some prediction of a crazy, euphoric top like we’ve seen in the past. It’s more about a potential rebound from an oversold condition. The setup, in his view, is all there: ugly charts, fear in the options market, a leverage reset, and a likely Fed cut on the horizon. It’s the kind of moment contrarians watch for. When everyone is scared, that’s often the time to look the other way.
