Karla Barker 
The end of an era for dial-up
AOL officially shut down its dial-up internet service yesterday, September 30, 2025. The company retired its AOL Dialer and AOL Shield products, though AOL Mail and other services continue operating. This move affects a relatively small number of American households—about 163,401 according to the 2023 American Community Survey—mostly in rural areas where broadband alternatives remain limited or expensive.
I think it’s interesting how this development keeps surfacing in conversations about Bitcoin’s future. The comparison gets made whenever we see infrastructure changes or market rotations. But perhaps we’re looking at this wrong. Dial-up was just an access method to the internet, not the internet itself. The network persisted and expanded while the way people connected to it evolved.
Bitcoin’s access rails are changing
When we talk about crypto, the proper comparison isn’t between Bitcoin and dial-up. It’s between the various access methods and the underlying network. Bitcoin functions as both a monetary asset and a settlement protocol. The access rails—things like ETFs, stablecoins, and Layer-2 solutions—are what’s evolving, not the core protocol itself.
Capital access has shifted dramatically in recent months. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have created what feels like a broadband equivalent for institutional investors. According to Farside Investors’ data, cumulative net inflows since January 2024 now exceed $60 billion. These flows continue even during periods of market volatility, suggesting a more durable foundation than we’ve seen in previous cycles.
CoinShares’ weekly reports through September showed ongoing inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum products. The pattern seems to be one of risk-on, risk-off allocation decisions rather than wholesale abandonment during downturns. This ETF channel doesn’t replace Bitcoin any more than broadband replaced the internet—it just makes access easier and more efficient.
Adoption metrics tell a complex story
Global crypto ownership sits somewhere between 562 million and 659 million people according to different estimates. That’s roughly 6.8 percent penetration globally, though regional variations are significant. What’s interesting is how on-chain activity patterns have changed.
Glassnode data shows active address counts remain below 2021 highs even as capital access has broadened through ETFs. This suggests we might be in a savings-led cycle rather than a payments-focused one. Meanwhile, Lightning Network public capacity has declined from late-2023 peaks above 5,400 BTC to around 4,000-4,200 BTC by August 2025. This likely reflects architectural changes and user experience improvements rather than declining interest.
Looking ahead to 2026-2030
Several scenarios frame Bitcoin’s potential growth over the coming years. A conservative path assumes about 0.5 percent allocation from global investable assets into Bitcoin across various channels. This could yield hundreds of billions in potential demand over a full cycle. A base case uses a one percent allocation that might create trillion-plus demand capacity if custody and clearing workflows continue improving.
On the user side, projections range from about one billion to more than two billion crypto owners by 2030. Much depends on mobile wallet integrations, regulatory clarity, and how the split between savings and payment use cases develops.
The International Telecommunication Union’s data helps put these ranges in context—global internet penetration already sits near the upper half of the adoption S-curve, suggesting there’s room for crypto to follow a similar trajectory.
So no, Bitcoin isn’t going the way of dial-up. The access methods are evolving, just as they did with the internet. ETFs, stablecoins, and Layer-2 solutions operate like broadband for capital and transactions, expanding Bitcoin’s reach without requiring replacement of the underlying protocol. AOL’s dial-up service is gone, but the internet—and Bitcoin—continue.