Karla Barker 
Social Activity Declines as Market Interest Wanes
Looking at Stellar’s recent performance, the numbers seem somewhat stable at first glance. The token has actually gained about 24% over the past three months and maintained relatively flat movement in recent weeks. But when you dig deeper into both technical indicators and on-chain metrics, the picture becomes less optimistic.
Social dominance for XLM has seen a significant drop from its July peak. Back on July 13, it reached 1.72% of crypto discussions, but by October 7, that figure had plummeted to just 0.16% – the second-lowest level in three months. This happened despite some positive ETF-related news that should have generated more buzz.
There was a small recovery to 0.36% recently, but that’s still well below previous highs. The pattern of lower highs in social activity suggests traders just aren’t paying much attention to Stellar right now. I think this muted chatter aligns with what we’re seeing in volume analysis trends, which track shifts between buyer and seller control.
Technical Breakdown and Failed Patterns
On the technical side, things look even more concerning. The bullish flag formation that some traders were watching has completely failed. Instead of breaking upward as expected, XLM broke below the support trendline. This signals that buyers couldn’t maintain enough control to push prices higher.
What’s particularly interesting is the daily RSI showing a hidden bearish divergence. This happens when the price makes lower highs but the RSI makes higher highs – usually confirming that the existing downtrend remains intact. It’s one of those technical patterns that doesn’t always show up on basic price screeners but can be quite telling.
The broader downtrend actually started back in mid-July when XLM fell from around $0.52 to $0.34, representing about a 35% drop. Since then, there hasn’t been any convincing break of this pattern.
What Comes Next for XLM
If Stellar falls below the $0.37 level, the next significant support sits at $0.34, which matches the late September low. A clean break below that could potentially extend the decline further. The brief periods of buyer control we saw recently appear to be thinning out again.
Looking back at similar patterns from mid-August and late September, when buyer control flipped back to seller dominance, XLM experienced corrections of 12% to 20%. If history repeats, we might see something similar play out.
That said, it’s not all doom and gloom. If XLM can reclaim $0.39 and then push through $0.41, that would invalidate this bearish outlook and show renewed buyer strength. The market always has the potential to surprise.
The combination of fading social interest and weakening technical patterns suggests the market’s enthusiasm for Stellar remains somewhat soft, even during these minor rebounds. It’s one of those situations where the surface-level stability might be masking some underlying fragility.