Karla Barker 
IBIT’s Options Market Signals Caution
A key metric for BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, known as IBIT, has been showing warning signs for two consecutive months now. The one-year put-call skew, which measures market sentiment and potential pessimism, turned positive on July 25th and has stayed above zero since then according to Market Chameleon data. That’s two full months where traders have consistently favored protective put options over bullish call options.
This sustained put bias suggests investors are taking a more cautious approach to IBIT. They seem to be hedging their positions rather than betting on significant price increases. Interestingly, we saw a similar pattern earlier this year from March 8th to April 21st. That period coincided with sharp declines in both Bitcoin’s spot price and IBIT itself, largely driven by trade war concerns affecting Wall Street.
Price Momentum Stalls
IBIT’s price trend has essentially stalled since July. The ETF has repeatedly failed to break above the $70 level, which seems to be acting as a resistance point. More recently, it formed what technical analysts call a “lower high” around $66. This means the recent peak price was actually lower than the previous high near $70.
This pattern typically indicates weakening buying pressure and suggests that sellers might be gaining strength. When you see lower highs forming, it often signals potential downtrend momentum or at least a pause in the upward movement. It’s not necessarily a catastrophic sign, but it does warrant attention from investors.
Market Implications
What’s interesting here is the divergence between different market signals. While the options market shows this bearish sentiment, we’re also seeing increased “buy the dip” calls for Bitcoin itself. Some analysts point to liquidity trends suggesting $107,000 as a potential magnet price for Bitcoin.
This creates a somewhat contradictory picture. On one hand, ETF traders are being cautious with their options positioning. On the other hand, there’s still underlying optimism about Bitcoin’s price potential. Perhaps the ETF-specific concerns relate more to short-term trading dynamics rather than long-term Bitcoin fundamentals.
I think it’s worth watching how this plays out over the coming weeks. The two-month duration of this bearish options bias is significant enough to take seriously, but market sentiment can shift quickly in the crypto space. The key will be whether IBIT can break through that $70 resistance level or if the lower highs pattern continues to develop.