Karla Barker 
XRP’s long-term $10 target remains a distant prospect, and ChatGPT has put some numbers behind that view. The AI model estimates a cumulative 10% chance that XRP reaches $10 by Dec. 31, 2030. That also means a 90% chance it does not hit the target within that period.
What ChatGPT expects through 2030
The model sees 2030 as the most likely year for XRP to reach $10, with the second half of that year offering the strongest window. It gives a 4.5% probability of the token first touching $10 during 2030.
The earlier estimates are lower. ChatGPT assigns a 0.5% chance for the rest of 2026, 1% in 2027, 1.5% in 2028, and 2.5% in 2029. Those yearly figures build to the 10% cumulative likelihood by the end of 2030. These are model estimates, not market forecasts, so they should be treated with caution.
The math behind a $10 XRP
At about $1.08, XRP would need a gain of more than 800% to reach $10. Based on an estimated circulating supply of 63.52 billion tokens, that price would put the market capitalization near $635.2 billion.
That kind of move would likely need large capital inflows. Stronger institutional adoption could help, as could sustained demand for spot XRP exchange-traded funds, wider use of Ripple’s payment infrastructure, and a prolonged crypto bull market. Weaker institutional demand, competition from other payment networks and digital assets, or broad market volatility could work against the outlook.
Price picture remains weak
XRP was trading at $1.08 as of press time, below its 50-day simple moving average of $1.37 and its 200-day average of $1.27. The 50-day average is still above the 200-day average, but price sitting below both points to weakening buying pressure.
The 14-day relative strength index is at 26.51, which places XRP in oversold territory. That reflects strong selling pressure, though it could also leave room for a short-term relief rebound if buyers return. The oversold reading does not confirm a reversal. XRP may stay under pressure until it reclaims those key moving averages.
For now, the $10 case looks like a long-term bet that depends on several market and adoption shifts lining up. Perhaps the more useful takeaway is the scale of the move required, not just the headline target.