Karla Barker 
A specific downside level
XRP traders have spent a lot of time imagining what happens to the price if the CLARITY Act passes. Analyst Gareth Soloway decided to look at the other side. His answer gives a specific level to plan for if the bill fails.
Soloway’s downside target sits near 70 cents. But that is not automatic. He said it would only happen if the bill is truly shut down, not if it is delayed or stuck in negotiations. A soft stall would not be enough. It would take a confirmed failure.
The 70 cent zone matters because of what happened in 2024. It lines up with a cluster of prior high points on the chart. Soloway also said that if he was building a long-term position, that area would be one he would consider buying around. So even in the bearish case, there is a technical reason to watch that level closely.
Current market conditions
The bearish scenario is not Soloway’s base case. Right now, he is actually long XRP. Earlier this week, the price briefly fell under one dollar before buyers stepped back in almost immediately. That move set off a wave of stop-loss selling and liquidations, but the quick recovery changed the picture.
Soloway described the recovery as a potential bottoming tail, which can signal that a short-term low is in place. He also pointed to a longer-term wedge pattern that recently broke to the upside. On top of that, support appears to be forming in the 96 to 97 cent range. Even with a messy chart, he sees enough positive signals to stay bullish.
Another analyst, CryptoMoses, focused on a shorter timeframe. On the 4H chart, XRP is inside a falling wedge with 1 dollar holding as key support. If buyers can break the wedge to the upside, the next levels to watch are 1.05 and 1.10. The structure is there, but price still needs to confirm it.
What still hangs over both scenarios
The reason both outcomes remain possible is the same unresolved question. The ethics provisions in the CLARITY Act are still being negotiated, and the timeline runs into early September. Those talks will likely decide which path plays out: a breakout toward higher levels or a slide back to 70 cents.
For now, traders are working with a clear set of levels. If the bill fails completely, the downside target is around 70 cents. If it survives or even just keeps moving forward, the chart suggests support near a dollar and possible upside toward 1.05 and 1.10. The market is waiting for something more concrete from Washington.