Karla Barker 
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report releases today, and crypto markets are bracing for potential volatility. Overall market cap has dipped 0.3% to $2.16 trillion, with Bitcoin hovering near $62,400. The inflation data could be the deciding factor between a rally or a further selloff.
June CPI expectations
According to Polymarket, the June CPI is forecasted to rise 0.2% from May, a slowdown from last month’s 0.5% increase. Year-over-year, inflation is predicted to ease to 3.8%, down from 4.2% previously. Investors will also pay close attention to Core CPI, which strips out food and energy—a key metric for the Federal Reserve. If inflation comes in below expectations, it might reduce pressure on the Fed to raise rates again, potentially boosting investor confidence and supporting Bitcoin. But a higher-than-expected reading could reignite fears of another rate hike and weigh on crypto prices.
Fed officials on alert
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently warned that another strong inflation report would be taken seriously. “If I get another higher one, I’m going to treat that as a signal, not noise,” he said. He added that inflation has stayed above the Fed’s 2% target for months and cannot be dismissed. Following his remarks, the CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 51.6% probability of another rate hike in September, adding uncertainty to markets.
Major cryptocurrencies have already slipped. Bitcoin trades near $62,400, while Ethereum, XRP, and other large-cap coins have posted losses in the last 24 hours. Beyond inflation, investors also watch rising U.S.-Iran tensions, which could keep inflation elevated and influence Fed policy going forward.