Karla Barker 
Shares of Coinbase Global fell nearly 7% on Friday to around $152 after Baird lowered its price target and named the crypto exchange a “Bearish Fresh Pick.” The stock has declined roughly 34% since the start of 2026 as cryptocurrency prices remain near 52-week lows.
Baird analyst David Koning reiterated a Neutral rating but cut the price target to $142 from $160. He warned that weak trading activity could persist and hurt second-quarter results.
Weak trading activity clouds revenue outlook
Although Coinbase has expanded beyond its core trading business, transaction revenue still drives much of its financial performance. Koning expects second-quarter revenue to come in 5% to 6% below Wall Street expectations. He projects trading volumes will decline 15% to 20% sequentially.
Activity across the crypto market has remained subdued despite some improvement in early June. “April and May were two of the slowest months in the past few years,” Koning wrote. He noted that Robinhood’s chief brokerage officer recently highlighted strength in equities, options, futures, and predictions but made no mention of crypto.
Baird also questioned whether the modest rebound in June trading volumes reflects sustainable demand. “While the first few days of June showed decent volume (closer to average levels of recent years), we think it’s due to significant trading out of Bitcoin, which may be followed by limited interest in trading,” Koning added.
The brokerage argued that the broader crypto market faces several headwinds, including the strong S&P 500, elevated inflation, high borrowing costs, and competition from other growth themes like AI stocks and new IPOs.
Regulatory uncertainty remains a concern
Baird also pointed to uncertainty around the proposed CLARITY Act, a market-structure bill many crypto supporters see as key for industry adoption. Legislative disagreements over ethics and crypto issuance issues make it less likely the bill passes before the November midterm elections, the firm said. This delay could allow banks and fintech companies operating under existing rules to strengthen their competitive positions.
Prediction market Polymarket currently assigns a 57% probability that the legislation becomes law this year, down from 65% a month ago.
Valuation debate intensifies
Beyond slowing growth, Baird argued that Coinbase’s valuation could face more pressure if earnings expectations keep falling. The stock trades at roughly 35 times estimated 2027 earnings per share. “The combo of falling estimates and weak multiples across beat/raise fintechs could eventually bleed into COIN’s valuation,” the firm wrote.
In a bear-case scenario, Baird believes the stock could drop to between $75 and $90 if 2027 earnings per share fall to $3 and the multiple contracts to 25 to 30 times earnings.
Despite the cautious outlook, Baird remains more bearish than most of Wall Street. FactSet data shows about 64% of the 39 analysts covering Coinbase currently rate it a Buy, with an average price target of roughly $231.