Karla Barker 
Whale Activity Splits Opinion
According to Santiment, wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE have accumulated roughly 500 million tokens since May 17. This suggests renewed interest from major players. However, not all whales agree on the direction. Wallets with 100,000 to 1 million DOGE and 1 million to 10 million DOGE reduced their positions by about 330 million tokens during the same period. This partial capitulation among mid-sized whales creates uncertainty in the market.
Derivatives Paint a Cautious Picture
Retail participation in the market has been poor. CoinGlass data shows the long-to-short ratio at 0.92, its lowest level in over a month. A reading below 1 typically indicates bearish sentiment, as more traders are betting on downside moves. Futures open interest has dropped to $1.40 billion, down from $1.62 billion a week ago.
On the other hand, funding rate data offers a more optimistic signal. DOGE’s OI-weighted funding rate turned positive earlier this week, reaching 0.0082% on Friday. This indicates that long positions are now paying shorts, which can sometimes signal that the market is bottoming out.
Technical Picture Remains Fragile
The 4-hour chart remains bearish as Dogecoin trades below the recent swing high above $0.1122. The token has found support around $0.102 in recent days, which could help push its price higher in the near term. Momentum indicators suggest fading bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 50, reflecting a directionless market. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally negative, suggesting poor buying interest.
If bulls regain control, immediate resistance sits at $0.112. A daily close above this level is needed for DOGE to reclaim the 200-day EMA at $0.122 and establish a strong bullish bias. But if sellers continue to dominate, bulls must defend the $0.102 support level. A daily close below $0.102 could allow bears to push DOGE lower toward the demand zone at $0.0885.
The market conditions remain fragile. Whale accumulation suggests some smart money is buying, but derivatives data points to caution. Until one side gains control, Dogecoin may continue to trade sideways without a clear direction.