Karla Barker 
Bitcoin’s February outlook shifts dramatically on prediction markets
Bitcoin briefly dropped below $72,000 on Thursday morning during Asian trading hours, hitting its lowest point in nearly 16 months. As the selloff continues, traders on prediction platform Polymarket are quickly adjusting their expectations. The data shows a pretty sobering short-term picture, though some longer-term optimism still lingers.
Polymarket’s real-money contracts reveal a market that’s trying to defend $70,000 as a floor while still hoping for $100,000 annual returns. It’s a strange position to be in, I think.
February contract shows $70,000 as the new baseline
The February Bitcoin price contract on Polymarket has about 24 days left and nearly $1.78 million in volume just on the $70,000 target. That tells you something about where traders’ minds are at.
The $70,000 contract jumped to 74% probability, up 65% from earlier levels. It’s become the most heavily traded target for the month. Meanwhile, upside expectations have basically collapsed. The $85,000 contract dropped 61% to just 29%, while $90,000 sits at 12% and $95,000 at only 7%.
On the downside, the $65,000 contract fell 13% to 39%, and $60,000 holds at 19%. Chances of a crash below $55,000 are in single digits. So the implied range for February is $65,000 to $85,000, with $70,000 as the most likely point.
Longer-term outlook still positive but weakening
The annual contract for 2026 shows a more nuanced picture. The $100,000 level has a 55% probability but is down 29% from earlier. $110,000 sits at 42%, also down 29%. These are significant declines from just weeks ago when traders were pricing in a continuation of 2025’s rally.
The $65,000 contract for 2026 surged 24% to 83% with over $1 million in volume—the highest on the board. This suggests traders are more focused on downside protection than upside speculation right now. The upper curve drops pretty steeply: $130,000 at 20%, $140,000 at 15%, and $250,000 near 5%.
Multiple factors driving the selloff
Bitcoin was trading around $73,199 at the time of writing, after that brief dip below $72,000 earlier Thursday. The token has fallen 16% year-to-date and about 40% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
Several factors seem to be converging. There are rising geopolitical tensions, lingering data gaps from last fall’s record 43-day government shutdown, and a hawkish Federal Reserve chair nomination that’s strengthening the dollar.
The technical damage has been pretty severe. Over $5.4 billion in liquidations have occurred since late January, pushing open interest to a nine-month low. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been bleeding capital for most of the past three weeks, with outflows of $817 million on January 29, $509 million on January 30, and $272 million on February 3. There was a single $561 million inflow day on February 2, but that seems like an exception.
Total net assets across spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen from over $128 billion in mid-January to $97 billion. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 12—deep in “Extreme Fear” territory and its lowest since November 2025. Meanwhile, gold has surged past $5,000 per ounce, which shows a broad rotation into safe havens.
What this means for traders
Polymarket’s data gives us a real-time look at how traders with actual money on the line are positioned. February expectations center on $65,000 to $85,000 with almost no chance of reclaiming $95,000.
The annual contract is more forgiving, with a slim majority still expecting $100,000 sometime in 2026. But even that conviction is weakening. For now, $70,000 is the number everyone seems to be watching.
It’s interesting to see how quickly sentiment can shift. Just a few months ago, people were talking about much higher targets. Now the focus is on defending key levels. Markets have a way of humbling even the most confident predictions, I suppose.